Monday, October 25, 2004

Worst-Case Scenario

Having just voted, I was thinking about what the worst-case scenario would be in the up-coming election. My current one is this: Kerry clearly wins the popular vote. By at least a million votes. Bush clearly wins the electoral college. This would deny Bush any sort of mandate (not that he would be likely to care, as long as he is elected), and make the majority of the US voters feel essentially dis-enfranchised. That's my current worst-case, in that it's a situation where the system works exactly as described in the constitution, but gives an outcome that is sub-optimal.

I think the repeat of a Florida-like event would be, oddly, a better outcome, insofar as that reasonable people could say that the race was close, and for whatever reasons, the courts decided it. My scenario is worse because there is no grey involved: Kerry is the popular winner, Bush is the electorial winner.

What are other people's worst-case scenarios?